The 2010 season is upon us as there are 4 days remaining until pitchers and catchers report. I already previewed the NL Central where I predicted:
The Cardinals have Pujols and Holliday, and Carpenter and Wainwright as both top tier pitching and hitting duos, and they are too talented not to win the central. Here’s how everything else will shake out I believe.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Halladay and Hamels will combine to win around 35 games by themselves and the Phils also feature one of the best lineups in baseball from top to bottom. They will overpower the rest of this otherwise average division.
2. New York Mets-Wild Card
At least this season, the Mets won’t collapse down the stretch and come in second. They simply won’t be able to keep up from the Phils. I think David Wright’s power numbers will rebound and Jason Bay and Johan Santana give the Mets a shot at the wild card. I think they get it.
3. Florida Marlins
Josh Johnson is quietly developing into one of the best unknown pitchers in baseball. Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu, and Chris Coghlan will give them a solid lineup, but I think inconsitency will plague them, and too many holes will be exposed for them to win the division.
4. Atlanta Braves
The Braves and Frank Wren baffled me this offseason with some of their moves. Trading Javier Vazquez for an average outfielder who will only block Jason Heyward’s path to the majors makes no sense to me, even taking money into account. Troy Glaus is not the answer to their hole at first base. However the Braves still have some solid starters with Hudson, Hanson, and the often overlooked Jair Jurrjens.
5. Washington Nationals
There is only one reason to care about the Nats this season: Steven Strasburg. How will he do?
1. San Francisco Giants
I think this will be a suprisingly really good team this year. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are both all-stars. A quick glance at the Giants lineup will raise the question can they hit enough but I believe that as a group Sandoval, Freddy Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, and Mark DeRosa etc will combine to create an offense which will score enough runs to support their pitchers
2. Colorado Rockies
The NL West is really a toss up between the Giants and Rockies I think. The Rockies have a lot of good young players. Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa have learned how to pitch in Colorado and pitch very well.Watch out for Ian Stewart this season. Hit BA is less than spectacular but dont be suprised to see 32-35 homers from him this season.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Not as good as people may think. Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw, Padilla is a very average top 4 pitchers in the rotation.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
Talent at some positions but too many holes from top to bottom. Webb is even a question mark this year after a lost 2009 campaign.
5. San Diego Padres
Hey, they’ll beat the Nationals. But a lineup with Nick Hundley, Chase Headley, Will Venable, and David Eckstein is hard to believe in!
The NL Central has no sure fire winner in 2010. However, the Cardinals appear to be the most talented team followed by the Brewers. The Reds though have potential to play themselves into contention as well.
Here is how I see the division shaking out.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Let’s be honest. The Pirates are the consensus pick for last. Yes they have a budding all star in Andrew McCutchen who had a great rookie season last year, but they have a rotation that features Ross Ohenlendorf and Cub reject Kevin Hart.
That is simply not good enough to contend. Pedro Alvarez, the team’s top prospect, will probably get some time to play at third this season, so the two interesting things for this team will be monitoring the development of future studs Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez.
5. Houston Astros
The Astros sill have some very good players on their team. Having been perennial contendors over the last 5-6 years, the team still has the likes of ace Roy Oswalt, sweet-swinging Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee. Hunter Pence will also look to take another step forward in 2010. The ‘Stros will be able to hit but in looking at their roster from top to bottom, they simply have too many holes to compete.
Roy Oswalt could be a blue chip summer trading piece if the team is out of contention and he could bring back good prospects in return.
4. Chicago Cubs
Cubs fans think that the departure of Milton Bradley will be a form of addition by subtraction, and it will. However that will not simply return there team to 2008 form.
They have not adjusted to the loss of Rich Harden, and with Ted Lilly out atleast a month, there rotation is set to start out Zambrano, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelanny, and who knows who else.
The back end of that rotation is simply not up to standards and Lou Piniella will have his work cut out for him closing out games as well. Carlos Marmol was atrocious last year with his control. Too many holes=not enough wins.
3. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have perhaps the most potential in the division, but I believe they will still be a year away from putting everything together. However, I do think this is a year where the Reds will hang around and make some noise in the division. The signing of Cuban-phenom has energized the Reds base and at Spring Training all eyes will be glued on the Cuban lefty. Whether he starts in the majors or not, the Reds just may not be able to click totally this year. The loss of Edinson Volquez until mid-summer at the earliest hurts, but the Reds have plenty of young pitchers waiting in the wings. Contending or not, I think the Reds will unload Harang before 2011 so this is his last hoorah in a Reds uniform. That will allow the Reds to unload 12 million of payroll and make room for them to make key additions to what should be a solid team down the road. The Reds front office is unified in the direction is wants to go, and Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, and Chapman give them the horses to get there.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Braun and Fielder. Braun and Fielder. Braun and Fielder. Alcides Escobar and Yovani Gallardo. The Brewers have a great mix of established stars and young athletes coming up through the system. They get the nod for the two spot because they just simply have fewer noticable holes than the Reds or Cubs. Casey McGeehee another Cub reject will look to build on his strong rookie season, and Ricky Weeks is still looking to breakout. I think he will, and Gallardo will be a star, leading to a 2nd place National League Central finish.
1. Champion-St. Louis Cardinals
A full year with Matt Holliday and another year with one of the best hitters ever will equal a NL Central title for the Cards in 2010. Also the Cards have one of the best one two punches on the mound in baseball if both Wainwright and Carpenter stay healthy. They were both stellar last year down the stretch. Expect youngster Colby Rasmus to hit lefties better than he did last season and be a strong complement in the lineup to the power of Holliday and Pujols. Too much offense and a great rotation with the best pitching coach in the game will help the Cards overpower the rest of the NL Central.